Who says the economic crisis has nothing to do with China?
[2009-01-10 11:18:48]
Tags: economic financial crisis in the stock market deflation reading ppi objects: all Ha Jiming said, PPI was negative because of the sharp reversal of domestic and foreign demand and bulk commodity prices decline significantly, indicating an increase in the risk of deflation. This view will also be given a number of experts agree that the Central University of Finance and Economics, director of the China Banking Research Center, said Guo Tian Yong, PPI is due to accelerate the decline in crude oil, iron ore, steel, coal and other raw materials and primary products prices have fallen sharply, especially in year-on-year decline in crude oil magnitude faster than the PPI declines, and its reason is the decline in the second half of 2008 has been a sustained decline in demand for raw materials, which is also held by Li Huiyong the same point of view.
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Ppi has currently dropped to negative, this is what the market is generally expected, it should be not too bad, just like Ha Jiming said, deflation risks are on the rise. This is also to inventory cycle, characterized by a clear, for example, an enterprise of production before the 100 goods, and market demand is 100, and now the financial crisis, economic slowdown, the market only 90 goods, but enterprises will not be soon, but also That is to say a lot of goods have been produced, and how should I do? Enterprises are now only produces 80 commodities, such monthly digest 10 inventory items, this time to happen is the demand for upstream raw materials multiplied decline, as businesses are not so much the production of, demand has declined, Professor Guo said as crude oil, iron ore, steel, coal and other raw materials and primary products prices have fallen sharply. In this way, enterprises do not produce, and people do not consume, the economy is getting contraction. This time there will be deflation. Another indicator is the consumer spending multiplier, we often said that stimulating domestic demand and expand consumption, how stimulating? Of course, can not expect that the whole 4000000000000 policies, government investment will pull the economy up to 2-3 percentage points, and more to flow in the consumer field. For example, one person received a salary of 1,000 yuan, up 800 yuan to buy food, sell food and income of 800 yuan, 640 yuan to buy clothes and then selling clothes is only the two into a savings up to 8 into the purchase of other goods, At this time spending multiplier is 5 times, that is, the income of 1,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan stimulating the economy, but our current multiplier in consumer spending in the shrinking state of the field, I understand has been reduced to three or four点几下decrease in consumption would expanding domestic demand more difficult. Therefore, I believe that China's economy will not be as optimistic as reported, what the financial turmoil does not matter with us, like, basically it is irresponsible, but not yet the full impact of us, a decrease in demand for the importing country economic crisis, how the importing country may not be affected? So now can not be blindly optimistic, tax cuts, investment, protect the institution-building, saving private enterprises, expansion of liquidity and so measures should be said that the better sooner rather than later! I also remember when the first to propose the Chinese economy is a risk of deflation Song Guoqing of Peking University teachers, to the far-sighted economists say the truth to pay tribute.
